Major Scientific and Technical Challenges about Development of New Processes in Refining and Petrochemistry*

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چکیده

The 1973 and 1979 crude oil crisis but also the Gulf War in 1991 deeply marked the international economic scene and the structure of energy markets. The tensions these events created in oil supplies and prices give rise to a more or less interrelated slowing down of economic growth, development of energy savings as well as a widespread movement of substitution among primary sources of energy. Consequently, the share of crude oil in the world energy consumption will drop from 50 percent in 1973 to around 30 percent in 2020 to the benefit of all other energy sources but mainly natural gas, nuclear power and to a lesser extent coal and hydroelectric power. Nevertheless, hydrocarbons will go on to play an important role in energy consumption by mankind because of their attractive physicochemical properties, their easiness of use and the large capitalistic investments already granted for their valorization. Also crude oil and natural gas will remain the leading energy sources, accounting for about 50 percent of the world energy demand at the beginning of the twenty-first century. Concerning the petroleum market evolution (Fig. 1), the greatest structural change stems from the refocusing of the uses of crude oil on specific markets—such as transportation and petrochemicals—whereas heating fuels (for house heating, power plants and industry energy needs) stand for a continually decreasing share in the crude oil balance sheet. More precisely and about motor fuels, the long term gasoline market reflect the change in private car fleets, especially in european countries, an equipment ratio close to saturation and a decrease in specific consumption. Besides, the developement of gas oils relies essentially on the rapid progress in air or road transportation

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تاریخ انتشار 1999